By TOTO CAUSING
FEARLESS but scientific and logical. This is my take without fear of contradiction: NOYNOY IS A SURE WINNER.
In the initial salvo of the survey conducted by the credible Social Weather Station (SWS), Senator Noynoy Aquino III soared to 56% of the voters voting for him if today is the election day.
In the early unofficial report of the SWS syndicated out, it showed that this 56% was registered in Region III or Central Luzon, which is composed of Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bataan and Zambales provinces and the cities within.
In the said early syndicated release, it showed that Noynoy was to be voted by at least 54% of the people of Region IV-A.
In the final unofficial consolidated report, however, Noynoy averaged a total 50% in three regions. The SWS has yet to complete its survey in other regions of the country.
The said survey was conducted on Sept. 5 and 6, right after Senator Mar Roxas announced his withdrawal of his presidency bid in favor of Noynoy and the latter has not yet announced acceptance of the offer for him to run for the highest office of the land.
In this syndicated result of SWS, it shows Noynoy clinched a total of 50% of the total votes. He got 50% in NCR, 48% in Pangasinan, 49% in Region III and 51% in Region IV-A.
Running second to him is Senator Manuel Villar at 14%; third is former President Joseph “Erap” Estrada at 13%, fourth is Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero at 12%, and fifth is Vice-President Manuel “Noli” de Castro at 7%.
The question in this survey is: “Sa mga sumusunod na listahan ng mga pangalan sa listahang ito, sino po ang malamang niyong iboboto bilang Presidente ng Pilipinas, kung ang eleksyon ay gaganapin ngayon?”
Reasons why Noynoy is sure winner
Only the premature death of Noynoy can stop him from becoming the 15th President of the Philippines. Now 15th if we consider the presidency of Arroyo as legitimate, otherwise Noynoy will be the 14th President.
Nevertheless, I conclude he is a sure winner because of the following reasons:
(a) The public is convinced he will never commit corruption as her mother did;
(b) There is no other presidential timber who has the image of being “super” incorruptible as Noynoy;
(c) The only major issue in the 2010 elections is how to stop and rid corruption;
(d) The other issues as to skills in governance have been rendered a non-issue;
(e) The extremely big initial support given by the people from all walks of life;
(f) The unprecedented massive and series of corruption scandals have saturated the minds of every Filipino that each of us have come to a firm resolve, “enough is enough”;
(g) The decision to give to the tenants all his shares in the storied Hacienda Luisita;
(h) The decision to convince the rest of the Cojuangco family to give up Hacienda Luisita to the tenants who deserve it;
(i) He is supported by a major and grand old political party;
(j) He is supported by other political parties;
(k) He is supported by cause-oriented groups; and
(l) He is supported by persons most or all of whom have no questions of impropriety.
Public is convinced Noynoy will never commit corruption
The public is convinced that Senator Noynoy will never ever commit corruption.
First, the public is convinced that a good tree will never bear a bad fruit. With this strong traditional belief, Noynoy can take comfort riding on the belief without it fading out until the day the people vote on May 10, 2010.
Ninoy has been enjoying the image as having extremely high degree of honesty in public service. His wife Cory also has been enjoying the reputation as an incorruptible president—in addition to her absence of greed as manifested by her refusal to run for a second term as president when everything was at her disposal; contrary to the petite woman who promised by Jose Rizal’s grave she would not seek new office only to desecrate the honor of the Filipino.
As such, Noynoy holds the edge as being known to be a fruit from not only a good tree—but extremely good tree in terms of honesty and lack of greed.
Second, Noynoy has not been reported to have committed any form of corruption in all his nine-year life as a congressman of Tarlac and almost six years as a senator. With this, he firmed up further the goodtree argument for him.
Third, he cannot afford to destroy the extremely good and very rare legacy established by his parents.
In fact this legacy is the best argument why he will never dip into corruption.
Can he afford to lose this legacy by gaining money in the amount of at least 20 billion pesos?
I argue he cannot.
This legacy is priceless. It cannot be bought even by 100 billion of pesos.
If he does otherwise, there will be no more tomorrow for his succeeding generations. Look at what happened to Marcos. His son and daughter cannot go beyond winning election in their locality. His wife, Imelda, can only win in her district in Leyte. The same fate will befall surely on the heirs of Gloria Arroyo.
This is so because his father, the late Senator Ninoy Aquino, has proven to the people that the latter is incorruptible.
The father accepted torture for seven years in prison in exchange for losing all the bribes and promises of material fortunes dangled on him by the late strongman Ferdinand E. Marcos.
Not only that, Ninoy even never minded the actual threat of death waiting for him in the Philippines as soon as he would step out of the plane from the United States of America.
Warned of the impending assassination, Ninoy replied: “The Filipino is worth dying for.”
At that time, Ninoy went into a virtual suicide without seeing any personal, family and material benefit. It was not clear whether offering his life would bring goodness to the nation. To the contrary, clear to his eyes were untold miserable consequences to her virtuallyunknown wife, Corazon, and his children. He knew his death would leave his children fending for themselves and even deprive his small children of a better life he could have given if he only accepted the millions ready for his taking from the hands of Marcos.
No other ‘presidentiable’ has reputation solid as Noynoy
Another reason that the voters will prefer to stick with Noynoy is that there is no other presidential timber having a reputation “super” incorruptible as Noynoy.
His closest opponent, Senator Villar cannot claim he has that clean slate .
Villar has also been haunted by allegations of land grabbing in his subdivision business. Now, he is facing an ethics investigation in the Senate for causing the approval of a budget for a major road in Sucat, benefiting his subdivision projects.
This, despite the fact that Villar has been listed by Forbes Magazine as the No. 9 richest person in the Philippines.
Estrada, who is the next closer possible opponent, was convicted of plunder but was pardoned by Arroyo.
Erap is no doubt so popular but this popularity cannot be converted into votes because of the lingering effect of his conviction from plunder. The only way for this effect to be negated was squandered: which is to fight for his acquittal in the Supreme Court.
The image of Erap further got a beating anew when Senator Panfilo Lacson delivered a privileged speech revealing that during the latter’s time as the chief of the national police, the former president was giving direct orders to subordinate police officers, including Sr. Supt. Michael Ray Aquino and Supts. Caesar Mancao and Glenn Dumlao.
Lacson was trying to lay down a foundation that it was possible that there was a person other than him who could have ordered the liquidation of publicist Salvador “Bubby” Dacer and the latter’s driver Emmanuel Corbito.
Senator Francis “Chiz” Escudero also enjoys a reputation as another incorruptible official, but the time seems not favoring him. However, there are sprinkles of issues coming out from his native Sorsogon that he has not done any good in his district there in the entire nine years that he was the congressman there.
Vice-President Noli is also suffering from the stigma of Arroyo. In all the crises besetting the Arroyo administration, particularly the “Hello Garci” scandal of tampering the votes, De Castro openly sided with her.
The acts of Noli in sticking to Arroyo until the last days of this petite woman in the presidency caused a debilitating effect on him. The preference for him then as No. 1 in the surveys has been sliced down to less than a third.
The other “presidentiables” do not have the fire and passion to convince the public they are also incorruptible.
Corruption is the only issue in 2010 elections; skills and platforms in governance do not matter
The only consideration of the greater majority of the Filipinos is: who is the candidate who is most likely not to steal from the government or earn profit using the government or its power.
This will of the greater majority is reflected on the first survey of the SWS that included Noynoy.
As shown above, more than 50% of the respondents surveyed by SWS said they will vote for Noynoy as president if the elections were held today.
It is undisputable that these voices did not see that Noy would be a good economist, or good manager of the government, or an intellectual, or one who can deliver millions of jobs, or one who can bring in investments, or one who can solve rebellion and secession, or one who knows the law.
If that is so, why half of these respondents chose to elect Noynoy?
By the process of elimination of possibilities that cannot be possible, we would be left of only one. That is only one, but that is the strongest point for it is the clamor of almost all.
This only criterion is: HE IS THE CLEANEAST IN TERMS OF CORRUPTION RECORD.
So that if half the people want him even if he has no profound expertise in governance, there is no other reason that they want him: HIS HONESTY.
And if it is so, the only issue that matters most is: WHO IS THE MOST HONEST?
The only reason we can see why these respondents acted this way is the series of corruption scandals plaguing the Arroyo administration.
The level of corruption in every office of the government has gone so high and has never been equaled in any other times
of our history.
Almost all citizens have knowledge about how the police extort from persons they arrested, legally or illegally. We all know that during the time of Lacson as the PNP chief, he succeeded in his campaign against police corruption. The “kotong” cops were either frozen after having been caught or killed when they resisted. Having seen the overwhelming will of Lacson to cleanse his ranks, the other crooks laid low. This earned Lacson the love of the lowly masses: the taxi, jeepney and tricycle drivers, the vendors, the suppliers of vegetables from Baguio, and others.
Almost all citizens know that when Lacson was gone, Arroyo came occupying the position of the President. Almost all citizens know that when the new dispensation came, crooks in uniform came back to life. Almost all citizens know that police operatives receive money from gambling lords. Almost all citizens know that “hulidap” is aplenty. Almost all citizens know that even drugs case can be fixed with policemen as arresting officers.
Almost all citizens know that when the jueteng payola issue erupted, starring Sandra Cam, it showed evidences linking the First Gentleman, his brother Rep. Ignacio Arroyo and his son Rep. Mikey to monthly protection money from gambling lords all over the country.
Almost all citizens know the P750-million fertilizer fund scam presided over by FG’s friend Joc-Joc Bolante. Almost all citizens know nothing happened here and no one has been punished despite the fact that it led to the assassination of whistleblower broadcaster-journalist Marlene Esparat.
Almost all citizens know the IMPSA deal where Rep. Mark Jimenez was reported to have given a bribe of $2 million to Hernando Perez, Arroyo’s Justice secretary. Almost all citizens know that after more than two years criminal charges were filed by the Ombudsman against Perez, which the latter took advantage of by invoking right to speedy disposition of the case as a ground for acquittal. Of course almost all citizens know that the Ombudsman purposely sat on the said case to give Perez a ground for freedom from imprisonment.
Almost all citizens know that the North Rail Project was overpriced yet it was pursued, with the Housing agency chaired by Vice-President Noli implementing the plan to evict the squatters on the railways.
Almost all citizens know that the Cyber Education project of the Department of Education was overpriced.
Almost all citizens know that the $329-million NBNZTE project was overpriced, leading whistleblowers Jun Lozada and Joey De Venecia III to expose the same. Almost all citizens know the famous line of then Comelec chair Benjamin Abalos to NEDA chief Romulo Neri, “Sec, may 200 ka dito.” Almost all citizens know that the Ombudsman acquitted First Gentleman from this scandal despite that famous line: “BACK OFF!,” which was uttered by FG to Joey De Venecia. Almost all citizens know that Gloria Arroyo was acquitted with shallow invocation of immunity from suit.
Almost all citizens know the Jose Pidal privileged speech of Senator Panfilo Lacson, exposing FG as the Jose Pidal who bought property for the First Couple in the US. Almost all citizens know how FG was saved by his loyal brother Iggy Arroyo, owning up that he is actually Jose Pidal and not FG.
Almost all citizens know that the P1-billion money of OFWs in OWWA was transferred to Philhealth for those Philhealth cards bearing the picture of Gloria. Almost all citizens know that Philhealth now is bankrupt and needing for funds to be put back to life anew.
The list is long that all the corruption cannot fit this space.
A few things are clear, however. Corruption incidents are aplenty. Those involved as front-actors are absolved in some. In other scandals, not one case has been filed. These are the very reasons that are more than enough for the people to be fed up and shout: “ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.”
This shout, for sure, will be done through the ballots because we are the silent type of people.
With this and the poverty plaguing in almost all families, the people’s attention is consumed by anger and they are focused only on who can give deliverance from these acts where the only cure is honesty.
What we see now is only one: HONESTY IS THE ONLY POLICY.
Extraordinary initial support for Noynoy & support from major political groups
No one has matched the survey rating of Noynoy. Not even Erap during his prime. Not even Fernando Poe whose best was at 30%.
Comparing to the best rater thus far in FPJ, there is no question that the rating of 50% for Noynoy is “super best.”
Eillen Tordesillas, one of those in Vera Files who wrote the exposes on Mikey Arroyo, called the survey rating of Noynoy as “tsunami.” We may call it in Tagalog as: “Delubyo.”
If FPJ started out at 30% of survey rating just before he declared he was running for president and everybody agrees he was the winner of the 2004 presidential race if not for Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano, with more reason that Noynoy will win with 50% survey grade even before he announced he would run for president.
If all kinds of attacks were hurled against Fernando Poe Jr. yet he won, although unofficially, with more reason that Noynoy can survive the storm of attacks, that would include the Hacienda Luisita issue.
Many may disagree but I argue that what is important for Noynoy is he has extremely high moral edge over all other candidates in order for him to win the 2010 elections.
This is so because it is much easier to maintain than to build up support with only a few days away from election day.
Comparing to FPJ, Noynoy has relatively clean baggage. Hence, Noynoy will have no much problem bringing his campaign until the Vote Day. Added to this, the issue of possession of minimum college education is not an issue with Noynoy, who graduated with AB economics from the Ateneo de Manila University. Moreover, skills and platforms of government are not much of an issue.
By the time his supporters from cause-oriented groups have consolidated and started campaigning, whatever that would be wasted along the way would be quickly recovered.
By this time, the Liberal Party will have already acquired reinvigoration to lead the charge in the main cities and provinces.
By this time, the party of another statesman, Raul Roco, will have already gained steam to push for him.
By this time, the moral dimension that can be provided by Father Ed “Among” Panlilio will have rolled higher for him.
By this time, the progressive and alternative politicians led by Isabela Gov. Grace Padaca and Naga Mayor Jessie Robredo will have accumulated strength among its ranks.
The Church is expected to go for him.
To the distaff side, the other major political parties, Nationalist People’s Coalition, Nacionalista Party, PDP-Laban, Partido ng Masang Pilipino (PMP), Reform Party, Lakas-Kampi are faced with the problem of how to use their monies to win moral support—and they will certainly find that today’s election for the presidency money is not much of a factor.
The decision to give ownership over the storied Hacienda Luisita
Just a few days ago, Noynoy announced he will relinquish his ownership over Hacienda Luisita in favor of the tenants.
At the same time, he also said he will convince his Cojuangco-side family to relinquish this vast farmland to the farmers because they can no longer afford the high cost of maintenance.
SWS Survey shows support from even Classes D & E
What is more astonishing in the unofficially released result of the SWS is the fact that even the voters coming from the poorest of the poor, Classes D & E, the bailiwick of Estrada, are strongly supporting Noynoy.
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